cycle | RobertLovesPi.net

Is This Whats Going On

I have a set of conjectures, and want input from my friends and blog-followers about them. How much of this has actually happened over the past months, weeks, and days?

1. The Chinese have been buying huge amounts of silver, thus driving up its price, because…

2. The political and business leaders in Greater China are, themselves, sick of living in an environmental nightmare based on decades of high consumption of oil and dirty coal, and are working on building enormous numbers of solar panels to get away from fossil fuel consumption, using lots of silver, which has the highest reflectivity of any element. China’s silver buying-spree is being misinterpreted, globally, because China is not well-understood, outside China.

3. These leaders of China have to breathe the same air, for one thing, as many Chinese people with much less power, and going green is the pragmatic thing to do. It is quite Chinese to be pragmatic. Living in Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, or other population centers, air quality is a major issue, as is global warming and other environmental concerns — all issues which many Americans are in the habit of ignoring.

4. As the Chinese phase themselves out of the human addiction to fossil fuels, total global oil consumption drops. Evidence: gasoline prices fell. I was buying for under $2 a gallon a week ago.

5. Falling oil prices have led to severe economic problems in the oil-producing countries of the Middle East. Higher-than-usual amounts of political stability have rippled through the Middle East through the last five years, and this has intensified further in recent months. The latest such development has been in Turkey, often seen as the most politically stable country in the Muslim world, is going through an attempted(?) coup, on the far side of the Middle East from China.

6. In the USA, one of the people running for president is a reactionary xenophobe, as well as a populist demagogue, and is running against an opponent with little to no ethical principles who is winning by default because she’s running against Trump. Donald Trump and his people (and he has a lot of people) have been spewing Islamophobia and Sinophobia, and they’ve been doing it loudly.

7. Many people all over the world are reacting to the Trump Trumpet o’ Hate, and freaking out. Various end-of-the-world scenarios are been floated publicly, especially in cyberspace. People are getting “off the grid” if they can, either because it’s a good idea, or because they’re panicked. In some places, efforts are actually being made to use the force of government to stop people from weaning themselves off the services of utility companies.

8. Few people realize that a lot of this is a set of unintended consequences of China (of all nations) leading the charge to do the right thing regarding oil addiction, from an environmental and ecological point of view, plus having a lunatic run for the White House.

9. The rising price of silver, panic-in-advance about a widely-expected coming collapse of fiat currencies, and the pronouncements and predictions of Ron Paul and his ilk, are all feeding off each other, in an accelerating spiral. In the meantime, the political instability in Turkey is capping off a slight rise in gas prices over recent lows, just in the last week.

10. Most Americans don’t know much about a lot of this because we’re at a point in the current, nasty election cycle that America as a people has simply forgotten (again) that the world outside the United States actually exists. Ignorance about the Middle East, economics, environmental science, and Greater China is widespread in the best of times. Thanks to (a) the “Donald and Hillary Show” playing 24/7 on cable news, (b) civil unrest at home (brutality on the part of some, but not all, police), and (c) a backlash against Black Lives Matter, with horrible behavior from some, but not all, of the protesters on all sides, and (d) an anti-or re-backlash against BLM is in “full throttle” right now, and (e) unrest abroad (Turkey, etc.), these certainly aren’t the best of times.

I invite anyone to weigh in on the subject of which of the above conjectures are valid, and which are invalid. I have deliberately cited no sources, yet, because I am asking for independent peer review, and so do not wish to suggest sources at this point. In addition to “Which of these statements are correct, and which are wrong?” I am also asking, “What am I missing?”

This is a waxing moon, meaning the sunlit portion we can see is growing. The outer curve also makes this view of the moon shaped more like the letter “D,” compared to the letter “C.” For the useful mnemonic here, remember that “D” stands for “developing.” D-shaped moons are in the waxing part of their cycle of phases, growing larger for about two weeks.

Later in the waxing portion of the moon’s cycle of phases, it becomes a gibbous moon — but retains its “D-like” shape. It is still slowly getting larger, approaching the full moon state.

Here is another gibbous moon, but it is shaped more like the letter “C” than the letter “D,” and, in this mnemonic, “C” stands for “concluding.” This moon’s sunlit portion is shrinking, moving away from fullness, towards the new moon state — in other words, it is a waning moon. All “C-shaped” moons, as viewed from Earth’s Northern hemisphere, are waning moons.

This crescent moon more closely resembles a “C” than a “D,” which is how I know, at a glance, that its phase cycle is concluding, and it is a waning crescent, soon to become invisible as a new moon.

This last picture shows the most difficult configuration to figure out: the points of the crescent near the moon’s North and South poles both point up. Having them both point down would pose the same problem. Here’s the solution, though: check to see which crescent-tip appears higher in the sky. In this case, it is the one on the left. That shifts the curve at the bottom of the moon (the one that is an actual moon-edge, rather than the terminator) slightly left-of-center, making the visible moon-edge more closely resemble a “C” than a “D.” This crescent moon, therefore, is a waning crescent.

Later addition: as a commenter pointed out, below, this method does not work from Earth’s Southern hemisphere — in fact, in that half of the world, the “D”/”C” rule must be completely reversed, in order to work. To accomplish this, “D” could stand for “diminishing,” and “C” could stand for “commencing,” instead.

[Image/copyright note: I did not take these photographs of the moon. They were found with a Google-search, and I chose images with no apparent signs of copyright. I am assuming, on that basis, that these images are not copyrighted — but, if I am wrong, I will replace them with other images, upon request.]